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Tskhinvali vs Kolkheti Poti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
6/23/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 16David Petriashvili Arena (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tskhinvali40%
×Draw25%
Kolkheti Poti35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tskhinvali
1.50
Kolkheti Poti
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tskhinvali
1.28
Kolkheti Poti
1.17

allows per match

Tskhinvali
1.61
Kolkheti Poti
1.72

finishing

Tskhinvali+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tskhinvali ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tskhinvali or draw
65%
Tskhinvali or Kolkheti Poti
75%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
60%

Winning margin

Tskhinvali wins by 2+
19%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tskhinvali 1+ goals
78%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
44%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
19%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
75%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
40%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
53%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tskhinvali at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tskhinvali attack 1.28 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Tskhinvali defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tskhinvali scores more
40%
level
25%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
35%

Tskhinvali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tskhinvali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tskhinvali vs Kolkheti Poti

Kolkheti Poti beat Tskhinvali 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on June 23, 2019.

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena (Tbilisi).