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Kolkheti Poti vs Tskhinvali — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
9/12/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 25Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava (Martvili)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kolkheti Poti54%
×Draw24%
Tskhinvali22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.69
Tskhinvali
0.99

Kolkheti Poti creates 71% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.54
Tskhinvali
0.83

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.15
Tskhinvali
1.83

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Tskhinvali+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Tskhinvali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
78%
Kolkheti Poti or Tskhinvali
76%
Draw or Tskhinvali
46%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
29%
Tskhinvali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
82%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
50%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
24%
Tskhinvali 1+ goals
63%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
26%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
71%
Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

Tskhinvali away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.54 + Tskhinvali defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tskhinvali attack 0.83 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
54%
level
24%
Tskhinvali scores more
22%

Kolkheti Poti at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Kolkheti Poti 1–0 Tskhinvali

Kolkheti Poti beat Tskhinvali 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava (Martvili).