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Tsirang vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

Tsirang
Tsirang
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Samtse
Samtse
9/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonTsirang Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tsirang62%
×Draw17%
Samtse21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsirang
2.84
Samtse
1.64

Tsirang creates 73% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tsirang
1.68
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

Tsirang
2.00
Samtse
4.00

finishing

Tsirang+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsirang ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Tsirang or draw
79%
Tsirang or Samtse
83%
Draw or Samtse
38%

Winning margin

Tsirang wins by 2+
42%
Samtse wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tsirang 1+ goals
94%
Tsirang 2+ goals
77%
Tsirang 3+ goals
53%
Samtse 1+ goals
81%
Samtse 2+ goals
49%
Samtse 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tsirang (draw refunded)
75%
Samtse (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsirang at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsirang attack 1.68 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.84

Samtse attack 1.28 + Tsirang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tsirang scores more
62%
level
17%
Samtse scores more
21%

Tsirang at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tsirang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tsirang 5–0 Samtse

Tsirang beat Samtse 5-0 in Premier League on September 4, 2025.

The match was played at Tsirang Artificial Turf in Damphu.