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Samtse vs Tsirang — Premier League 2023

Samtse
Samtse
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tsirang
Tsirang
7/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonSamtse Dzongkhag Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Samtse38%
×Draw20%
Tsirang42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtse
2.20
Tsirang
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

creates per match

Samtse
2.22
Tsirang
1.00

allows per match

Samtse
3.67
Tsirang
2.17

finishing

Samtse+0.00on par
Tsirang+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtse ↓

Tsirang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Samtse or draw
58%
Samtse or Tsirang
80%
Draw or Tsirang
62%

Winning margin

Samtse wins by 2+
21%
Tsirang wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Samtse 1+ goals
89%
Samtse 2+ goals
64%
Samtse 3+ goals
37%
Tsirang 1+ goals
90%
Tsirang 2+ goals
67%
Tsirang 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Samtse (draw refunded)
47%
Tsirang (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtse at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

Tsirang away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtse attack 2.22 + Tsirang defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.20

Tsirang attack 1.00 + Samtse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Samtse scores more
38%
level
20%
Tsirang scores more
42%

Tsirang at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tsirang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtse vs Tsirang

Tsirang beat Samtse 2-1 in Premier League on July 9, 2025.

The match was played at Samtse Dzongkhag Ground in Samtse.