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Tsirang vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

Tsirang
Tsirang
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
6/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Tsirang Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tsirang49%
×Draw22%
Phuntsholing Heroes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsirang
1.90
Phuntsholing Heroes
1.39

Tsirang creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tsirang
1.68
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

Tsirang
2.00
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

Tsirang+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsirang ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tsirang or draw
72%
Tsirang or Phuntsholing Heroes
78%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
51%

Winning margin

Tsirang wins by 2+
28%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tsirang 1+ goals
85%
Tsirang 2+ goals
56%
Tsirang 3+ goals
29%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
75%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
40%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tsirang (draw refunded)
64%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsirang at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsirang attack 1.68 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.90

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + Tsirang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tsirang scores more
49%
level
22%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
28%

Tsirang at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tsirang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsirang vs Phuntsholing Heroes

Phuntsholing Heroes beat Tsirang 1-0 in Premier League on June 13, 2024.

The match was played at Tsirang Artificial Turf in Damphu.