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Phuntsholing Heroes vs Tsirang — Premier League 2023

Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Tsirang
Tsirang
8/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes35%
×Draw20%
Tsirang46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.08
Tsirang
2.39

Tsirang creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.00
Tsirang
1.00

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.78
Tsirang
2.17

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par
Tsirang+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Tsirang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw
54%
Phuntsholing Heroes or Tsirang
80%
Draw or Tsirang
65%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
19%
Tsirang wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
87%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
61%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
34%
Tsirang 1+ goals
91%
Tsirang 2+ goals
69%
Tsirang 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
43%
Tsirang (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Tsirang away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Tsirang defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tsirang attack 1.00 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
35%
level
20%
Tsirang scores more
46%

Tsirang at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tsirang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phuntsholing Heroes vs Tsirang

Tsirang beat Phuntsholing Heroes 6-1 in Premier League on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at PSA Phuentsholing Stadium in Phuentsholing.