Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Moroka Swallows — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
4/17/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila36%
×Draw32%
Moroka Swallows32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.96
Moroka Swallows
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Moroka Swallows
0.74

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Moroka Swallows
1.06

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Moroka Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
68%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Moroka Swallows
68%
Draw or Moroka Swallows
64%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
13%
Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
62%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
25%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
7%
Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
59%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
22%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
53%
Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
36%
level
32%
Moroka Swallows scores more
32%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1–1 Moroka Swallows

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila and Moroka Swallows drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.