Moroka Swallows 1–1 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Moroka Swallows

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

3/7/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 15Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Moroka Swallows43%

×Draw29%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moroka SwallowsExpected goals in this matchTshakhuma Madzivhadila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.89

Moroka Swallows

1.21

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.89

Moroka Swallows creates 36% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

0.98

creates per match

0.72

1.05

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Moroka Swallows

0.98

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.72

allows per match

Moroka Swallows

1.05

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw

73%

Moroka Swallows or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

71%

Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

57%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

19%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

70%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

34%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

12%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals

59%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals

22%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

62%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more

43%

level

29%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more

27%

Moroka Swallows at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Moroka Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff