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Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
T. Mnyamane 90+8' (pen)
T. Rakhale 42'
L. Manyama 66'
5/4/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila31%
×Draw31%
Kaizer Chiefs38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.90
Kaizer Chiefs
1.04

Kaizer Chiefs creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 124 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Kaizer Chiefs
0.94

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
62%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Kaizer Chiefs
69%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
69%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
11%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
59%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
23%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
6%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
65%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
28%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
45%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
31%
level
31%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
38%

Kaizer Chiefs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Celimpilo Ngema
18'
Njabulo Blom
38'
Njabulo Blom
38'
Njabulo Blom
42'
T. Rakhale↳ T. Mnyamane
46'
Y. Sasman← H. Mashiane
66'
L. Manyama
69'
T. Nevhulamba← T. Rakhale
73'
D. Zuma← L. Manyama
74'
W. Katsande← K. Baccus
75'
B. Theron← D. Thopola
80'
J. Malongoane← L. Lamola
88'
L. Castro← S. Nurkovic
90'
Ramahlwe Mphahlele
90'
Bruce Bvuma
90+8'
T. MnyamanePenalty

Possession

47%Tshakhuma

Shots

6Tshakhuma

Statistics

TshakhumaKaizer
Overview
47%Possession53%
6Total Shots5
6Corners4
2Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots5
2On Target2
4Off Target3
Passing
47%Possession53%
Discipline
2Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
6Offsides3

Match Recap: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Kaizer Chiefs

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila beat Kaizer Chiefs 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 4, 2021.

Goals: T. Rakhale (42'), L. Manyama (66'), T. Mnyamane (90+8' pen).

Kaizer Chiefs controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.