Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaizer Chiefs vs Marumo Gallants — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
A. Du Preez 6'
R. Chivaviro 36'
4/8/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20FNB Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs47%
×Draw28%
Marumo Gallants25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.30
Marumo Gallants
0.87

Kaizer Chiefs creates 49% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 76 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Marumo Gallants
0.72

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Marumo Gallants
1.45

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Marumo Gallants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
75%
Kaizer Chiefs or Marumo Gallants
72%
Draw or Marumo Gallants
53%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
22%
Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
73%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
37%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
14%
Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
58%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
22%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
65%
Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
47%
level
28%
Marumo Gallants scores more
25%

Kaizer Chiefs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Du Preez↳ Y. Maart
30'
Mpho Mvelase
36'
R. Chivaviro
61'
B. Pheko← K. Otladisa
62'
M. Makudubela← L. Nku
70'
Celimpilo Ngema
70'
L. Matlou← M. Shabalala
71'
H. Mashiane← K. Dolly
78'
C. Soumaro← L. Koapeng
83'
Lebohang Mabotja
85'
Sfiso Hlanti
90+1'
S. Nkosi← R. Chivaviro

Possession

42%Kaizer

Shots

18Kaizer

Statistics

KaizerMarumo
Overview
42%Possession58%
18Total Shots11
4Corners3
12Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots11
5On Target5
9Off Target6
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides6

Premier Soccer League: Kaizer Chiefs 1–1 Marumo Gallants

Kaizer Chiefs and Marumo Gallants drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 8, 2023.

Goals: A. Du Preez (6'), R. Chivaviro (36').

Marumo Gallants controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.