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Marumo Gallants vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
Sekela Sithole 8'
Mfundo Vilakazi 79'
Mduduzi Shabalala 17'
9/14/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Free State Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants31%
×Draw31%
Kaizer Chiefs38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marumo Gallants
0.91
Kaizer Chiefs
1.04

Kaizer Chiefs creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 119 away

creates per match

Marumo Gallants
0.86
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Marumo Gallants
1.01
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw
62%
Marumo Gallants or Kaizer Chiefs
69%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
69%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
11%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
60%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
23%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
6%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
65%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
28%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
45%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more
31%
level
31%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
38%

Kaizer Chiefs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Gastón SirinoKaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs · F
8.9

Match Events

8'
Sekela Sithole↳ Joseph Molangoane
17'
Mduduzi Shabalala↳ Gastón Sirino
22'
Daniel Akpeyi← Washington Arubi
43'
Yusuf Maart
54'
Edson Castillo← Samkelo Zwane
60'
Mfundo Vilakazi← Christian Saile Basomboli
65'
Bradley Cross
68'
Reeve Frosler
69'
Daniel Msendami← Kamohelo Mahlatsi
72'
Gastón Sirino
73'
Wandile Duba← Ranga Chivaviro
73'
Ashley Du Preez← Mduduzi Shabalala
76'
Joseph Molangoane
79'
Mfundo Vilakazi↳ Wandile Duba
88'
Siyabulela Shai← Gabadinho Mhango
88'
Sekela Sithole← Sekela Sithole

Possession

59%Marumo

Shots

7Marumo

Pass accuracy

53%Marumo

Statistics

MarumoKaizer
Overview
59%Possession41%
7Total Shots20
4Corners8
11Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots20
1On Target9
3Off Target7
3Blocked4
2Inside Box13
5Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
401Total Passes271
319Accurate Passes196
80%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls14
0Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
3Offsides6

Premier Soccer League: Marumo Gallants 1–2 Kaizer Chiefs

Kaizer Chiefs beat Marumo Gallants 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 14, 2024.

Goals: Sekela Sithole (8'), Mduduzi Shabalala (17'), Mfundo Vilakazi (79').

Marumo Gallants controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 20.

The match was played at Free State Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.