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Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Bloem Celtic — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
4/28/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Old Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila39%
×Draw29%
Bloem Celtic32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.17
Bloem Celtic
1.02

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Bloem Celtic
1.02

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Bloem Celtic
1.47

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Bloem Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
68%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Bloem Celtic
71%
Draw or Bloem Celtic
61%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
17%
Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
69%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
33%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
11%
Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
64%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
27%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
55%
Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
39%
level
29%
Bloem Celtic scores more
32%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1–0 Bloem Celtic

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila beat Bloem Celtic 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.