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Bloem Celtic vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1/30/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic50%
×Draw27%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.42
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86

Bloem Celtic creates 65% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 76 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.72

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.45

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
77%
Bloem Celtic or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
73%
Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
50%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
25%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
76%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
41%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
17%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
58%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
21%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
69%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
50%
level
27%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
23%

Bloem Celtic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bloem Celtic vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Bloem Celtic beat Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.