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Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Ajax Cape Town — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 0
Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
9/15/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1BidVest Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila40%
×Draw30%
Ajax Cape Town30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.11
Ajax Cape Town
0.93

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Ajax Cape Town
0.84

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Ajax Cape Town
1.37

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Ajax Cape Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
70%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Ajax Cape Town
70%
Draw or Ajax Cape Town
60%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
16%
Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
67%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
30%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
10%
Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
61%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
24%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
57%
Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
40%
level
30%
Ajax Cape Town scores more
30%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1–5 Ajax Cape Town

Ajax Cape Town beat Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 5-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 15, 2020.

The match was played at BidVest Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.