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Ajax Cape Town vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila — Premier Soccer League 2018

Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
9/6/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Rand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town41%
×Draw29%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Cape Town
1.20
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.96

Ajax Cape Town creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town
0.95
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.72

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town
1.21
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.45

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw
71%
Ajax Cape Town or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
71%
Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
59%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
18%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
70%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
34%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
12%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
62%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
25%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
59%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more
41%
level
29%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
29%

Ajax Cape Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ajax Cape Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Ajax Cape Town 3–2 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Ajax Cape Town beat Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3-2 in Premier Soccer League on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Rand Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.