TSC Backa Topola 1–1 Sindjelic Beograd

TSC Backa Topola

FT

1 – 1

Sindjelic Beograd

11/10/2018

Prva Liga · Round 16Gradski stadion (Bačka Topola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TSC Backa Topola71%

×Draw19%

Sindjelic Beograd10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSC Backa TopolaExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.64

TSC Backa Topola

2.08

Sindjelic Beograd

0.64

TSC Backa Topola creates 225% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

2.37

creates per match

0.74

0.53

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola

2.37

Sindjelic Beograd

0.74

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola

0.53

Sindjelic Beograd

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw

90%

TSC Backa Topola or Sindjelic Beograd

81%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

29%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

46%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

87%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

61%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

34%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

47%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

14%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

87%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 2.37 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more

71%

level

19%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

10%

TSC Backa Topola at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff