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Sindjelic Beograd vs TSC Backa Topola — Prva Liga 2018

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
2 – 2
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
5/1/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 6Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd25%
×Draw26%
TSC Backa Topola49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.01
TSC Backa Topola
1.50

TSC Backa Topola creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
TSC Backa Topola
1.89

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
TSC Backa Topola
0.89

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
51%
Sindjelic Beograd or TSC Backa Topola
74%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
75%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
9%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
64%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
27%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
8%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
78%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
44%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
34%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.89 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
25%
level
26%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
49%

TSC Backa Topola at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sindjelic Beograd vs TSC Backa Topola

Sindjelic Beograd and TSC Backa Topola drew 2-2 in Prva Liga on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd).