Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TSC Backa Topola vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2026

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
11/30/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

TSC Backa Topola51%
×Draw25%
Radnik Surdulica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.64
Radnik Surdulica
1.04

TSC Backa Topola creates 58% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 128 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.80
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
76%
TSC Backa Topola or Radnik Surdulica
75%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
49%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
27%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
81%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
49%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
23%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
65%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
28%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
68%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
51%
level
25%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
24%

TSC Backa Topola at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: TSC Backa Topola 0–2 Radnik Surdulica

Radnik Surdulica beat TSC Backa Topola 2-0 in Super Liga on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at TSC Arena.