Radnik Surdulica 0–0 TSC Backa Topola

Radnik Surdulica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TSC Backa Topola

7/26/2025

Super Liga · Round 2EFBET Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Radnik Surdulica34%

×Draw26%

TSC Backa Topola40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchTSC Backa Topola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.35

Radnik Surdulica

1.23

TSC Backa Topola

1.35

TSC Backa Topola creates 10% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 125 away

1.14

creates per match

1.54

1.17

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.14

TSC Backa Topola

1.54

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

TSC Backa Topola

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

TSC Backa Topola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

60%

Radnik Surdulica or TSC Backa Topola

74%

Draw or TSC Backa Topola

66%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

14%

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

71%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

35%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

13%

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

74%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

39%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

46%

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

34%

level

26%

TSC Backa Topola scores more

40%

TSC Backa Topola at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff