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TSC Backa Topola vs Javor — Super Liga 2026

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Javor
Javor
5/10/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Relegation Group - 35TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

TSC Backa Topola55%
×Draw23%
Javor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.80
Javor
1.06

TSC Backa Topola creates 70% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 90 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.80
Javor
0.96

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Javor
1.80

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
78%
TSC Backa Topola or Javor
77%
Draw or Javor
45%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
31%
Javor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
83%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
54%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
27%
Javor 1+ goals
65%
Javor 2+ goals
29%
Javor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
71%
Javor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

Javor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.80 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + Javor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Javor attack 0.96 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
55%
level
23%
Javor scores more
22%

TSC Backa Topola at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: TSC Backa Topola 6–1 Javor

TSC Backa Topola beat Javor 6-1 in Super Liga on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at TSC Arena.