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Javor vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
8/20/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Stadion Ivanjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Javor34%
×Draw26%
TSC Backa Topola40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.27
TSC Backa Topola
1.41

TSC Backa Topola creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 125 away

creates per match

Javor
1.24
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

Javor
1.27
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Javor or draw
60%
Javor or TSC Backa Topola
74%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
66%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
15%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
72%
Javor 2+ goals
36%
Javor 3+ goals
14%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
76%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
41%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
46%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.24 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Javor defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Javor scores more
34%
level
26%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
40%

TSC Backa Topola at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Javor 0–3 TSC Backa Topola

TSC Backa Topola beat Javor 3-0 in Super Liga on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivanjica in Ivanjica.