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TSC Backa Topola vs FK Becej — Prva Liga 2018

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
FT
2 – 1
FK Becej
FK Becej
9/15/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 7Gradski stadion (Bačka Topola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

TSC Backa Topola65%
×Draw22%
FK Becej13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.83
FK Becej
0.68

TSC Backa Topola creates 169% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
2.37
FK Becej
0.83

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
0.53
FK Becej
1.28

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
87%
TSC Backa Topola or FK Becej
78%
Draw or FK Becej
35%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
38%
FK Becej wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
84%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
54%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
28%
FK Becej 1+ goals
49%
FK Becej 2+ goals
15%
FK Becej 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
83%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

FK Becej away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 2.37 + FK Becej defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.83

FK Becej attack 0.83 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
65%
level
22%
FK Becej scores more
13%

TSC Backa Topola at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: TSC Backa Topola 2–1 FK Becej

TSC Backa Topola beat FK Becej 2-1 in Prva Liga on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Bačka Topola).