FK Becej 0–0 TSC Backa Topola: Result & Stats

FK Becej

FT

0 – 0

TSC Backa Topola

12/10/2018

Prva Liga · Round 22Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Becej27%

×Draw26%

TSC Backa Topola47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK BecejExpected goals in this matchTSC Backa Topola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.50

FK Becej

1.07

TSC Backa Topola

1.50

TSC Backa Topola creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.26

creates per match

1.89

1.11

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

FK Becej

1.26

TSC Backa Topola

1.89

allows per match

FK Becej

1.11

TSC Backa Topola

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

TSC Backa Topola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw

53%

FK Becej or TSC Backa Topola

74%

Draw or TSC Backa Topola

73%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+

10%

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals

66%

FK Becej 2+ goals

29%

FK Becej 3+ goals

9%

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

78%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

44%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)

36%

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.89 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Becej scores more

27%

level

26%

TSC Backa Topola scores more

47%

TSC Backa Topola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff