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TSC Backa Topola vs Bezanija — Prva Liga 2018

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bezanija
Bezanija
3/27/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 29Gradski stadion (Bačka Topola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TSC Backa Topola66%
×Draw21%
Bezanija14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.98
Bezanija
0.77

TSC Backa Topola creates 157% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
2.37
Bezanija
1.00

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
0.53
Bezanija
1.58

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Bezanija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
86%
TSC Backa Topola or Bezanija
79%
Draw or Bezanija
34%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
40%
Bezanija wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
86%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
59%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
31%
Bezanija 1+ goals
54%
Bezanija 2+ goals
18%
Bezanija 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
83%
Bezanija (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 2.37 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.98

Bezanija attack 1.00 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
66%
level
21%
Bezanija scores more
14%

TSC Backa Topola at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: TSC Backa Topola 4–1 Bezanija

TSC Backa Topola beat Bezanija 4-1 in Prva Liga on March 27, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Bačka Topola).