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Bezanija vs TSC Backa Topola — Prva Liga 2018

Bezanija
Bezanija
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
10/31/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 14Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bezanija32%
×Draw25%
TSC Backa Topola43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezanija
1.25
TSC Backa Topola
1.50

TSC Backa Topola creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bezanija
1.61
TSC Backa Topola
1.89

allows per match

Bezanija
1.11
TSC Backa Topola
0.89

finishing

Bezanija+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezanija ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bezanija or draw
57%
Bezanija or TSC Backa Topola
75%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
68%

Winning margin

Bezanija wins by 2+
13%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bezanija 1+ goals
71%
Bezanija 2+ goals
36%
Bezanija 3+ goals
13%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
78%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
44%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bezanija (draw refunded)
42%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezanija at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezanija attack 1.61 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.89 + Bezanija defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bezanija scores more
32%
level
25%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
43%

TSC Backa Topola at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Bezanija 0–1 TSC Backa Topola

TSC Backa Topola beat Bezanija 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Bežanijske crkve (Beograd).