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Tsarsko Selo vs Nesebar — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
3 – 1
Nesebar
Nesebar
2/23/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tsarsko Selo71%
×Draw18%
Nesebar11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
2.25
Nesebar
0.77

Tsarsko Selo creates 192% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.50
Nesebar
0.74

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.80
Nesebar
2.00

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
89%
Tsarsko Selo or Nesebar
82%
Draw or Nesebar
29%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
47%
Nesebar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
89%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
65%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
39%
Nesebar 1+ goals
54%
Nesebar 2+ goals
18%
Nesebar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
86%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Nesebar away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.50 + Nesebar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Nesebar attack 0.74 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
71%
level
18%
Nesebar scores more
11%

Tsarsko Selo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Nesebar

Tsarsko Selo beat Nesebar 3-1 in Second League on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).