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Nesebar vs Tsarsko Selo — Second League 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
3/18/2017Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nesebar27%
×Draw24%
Tsarsko Selo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
1.21
Tsarsko Selo
1.69

Tsarsko Selo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nesebar
1.14
Tsarsko Selo
1.95

allows per match

Nesebar
1.42
Tsarsko Selo
1.27

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
51%
Nesebar or Tsarsko Selo
76%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
73%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
11%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
70%
Nesebar 2+ goals
34%
Nesebar 3+ goals
12%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
82%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
50%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
36%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 1.14 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.95 + Nesebar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nesebar scores more
27%
level
24%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
49%

Tsarsko Selo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs Tsarsko Selo

Nesebar beat Tsarsko Selo 2-1 in Second League on March 18, 2017.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Nesebar).