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Tsarsko Selo vs Montana — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montana
Montana
8/17/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tsarsko Selo46%
×Draw28%
Montana26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.35
Montana
0.93

Tsarsko Selo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Montana
0.56

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Montana
1.64

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
74%
Tsarsko Selo or Montana
72%
Draw or Montana
54%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
22%
Montana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
74%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
39%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
15%
Montana 1+ goals
61%
Montana 2+ goals
24%
Montana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
64%
Montana (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Montana away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Montana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Montana attack 0.56 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
46%
level
28%
Montana scores more
26%

Tsarsko Selo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Montana

Tsarsko Selo and Montana drew 0-0 in First League on August 17, 2020.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.