Montana 2–0 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tsarsko Selo

9/17/2018

Second League · Round 7Stadion Ogosta (Montana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Montana35%

×Draw26%

Tsarsko Selo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.36

Montana

1.29

Tsarsko Selo

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

1.59

creates per match

2.00

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Montana

1.59

Tsarsko Selo

2.00

allows per match

Montana

0.73

Tsarsko Selo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montana or draw

61%

Montana or Tsarsko Selo

74%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

65%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

15%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

72%

Montana 2+ goals

37%

Montana 3+ goals

14%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

74%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

39%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

48%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.00 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montana scores more

35%

level

26%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

39%

Tsarsko Selo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff