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Tsarsko Selo vs Litex — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
4 – 0
Litex
Litex
7/7/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tsarsko Selo77%
×Draw14%
Litex9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
2.92
Litex
0.92

Tsarsko Selo creates 217% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.17
Litex
1.00

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.83
Litex
3.67

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Litex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
91%
Tsarsko Selo or Litex
86%
Draw or Litex
23%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
57%
Litex wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
94%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
78%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
55%
Litex 1+ goals
60%
Litex 2+ goals
23%
Litex 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
89%
Litex (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Litex away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.17 + Litex defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.92

Litex attack 1.00 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
77%
level
14%
Litex scores more
9%

Tsarsko Selo at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Litex

Tsarsko Selo beat Litex 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.