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Tsarsko Selo vs Litex — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Litex
Litex
12/1/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tsarsko Selo62%
×Draw22%
Litex16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.88
Litex
0.82

Tsarsko Selo creates 129% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.53
Litex
0.84

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.80
Litex
1.24

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Litex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
84%
Tsarsko Selo or Litex
78%
Draw or Litex
38%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
37%
Litex wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
85%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
56%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
29%
Litex 1+ goals
56%
Litex 2+ goals
20%
Litex 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
80%
Litex (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.53 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

Litex attack 0.84 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
62%
level
22%
Litex scores more
16%

Tsarsko Selo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Litex

Tsarsko Selo beat Litex 3-1 in Second League on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).