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Tsarsko Selo vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
12/6/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo45%
×Draw27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.39
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.05

Tsarsko Selo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.72

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
72%
Tsarsko Selo or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
73%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
55%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
75%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
40%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
16%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
65%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
28%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
61%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
45%
level
27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
28%

Tsarsko Selo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Tsarsko Selo and Etar Veliko Tarnovo drew 2-2 in First League on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.