Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–0 Tsarsko Selo

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tsarsko Selo

12/1/2020

First League · Round 14Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo41%

×Draw29%

Tsarsko Selo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.99

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.22

Tsarsko Selo

0.99

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

1.08

creates per match

0.69

1.29

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.08

Tsarsko Selo

0.69

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.29

Tsarsko Selo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

70%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Tsarsko Selo

71%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

59%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

18%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

70%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

34%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

12%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

63%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

26%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

58%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

41%

level

29%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

30%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff