Tsarsko Selo 1–2 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dunav Ruse

11/11/2019

First League · Round 16Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tsarsko Selo49%

×Draw25%

Dunav Ruse26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Tsarsko Selo

1.63

Dunav Ruse

1.13

Tsarsko Selo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

1.06

creates per match

0.97

1.29

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.06

Dunav Ruse

0.97

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.29

Dunav Ruse

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

74%

Tsarsko Selo or Dunav Ruse

75%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

51%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

26%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

80%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

48%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

22%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

68%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

31%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

65%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Dunav Ruse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dunav Ruse attack 0.97 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

49%

level

25%

Dunav Ruse scores more

26%

Tsarsko Selo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff