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Dunav Ruse vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
7/13/2020First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Play-offs - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dunav Ruse39%
×Draw29%
Tsarsko Selo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.18
Tsarsko Selo
1.03

Dunav Ruse creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.00
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
1.38
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
68%
Dunav Ruse or Tsarsko Selo
71%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
61%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
17%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
69%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
33%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
12%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
64%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
28%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
55%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.00 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
39%
level
29%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
32%

Dunav Ruse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Tsarsko Selo

Dunav Ruse beat Tsarsko Selo 1-0 in First League on July 13, 2020.