Tsarsko Selo 1–2 Beroe: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Beroe

S. Kalombo 7'

A. Fall 82'

Johnatan 56'

2/20/2022

First League · Round 20Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo40%

×Draw28%

Beroe32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchBeroe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.11

Tsarsko Selo

1.26

Beroe

1.11

Tsarsko Selo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 138 away

1.06

creates per match

0.93

1.29

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.06

Beroe

0.93

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

1.29

Beroe

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Beroe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

68%

Tsarsko Selo or Beroe

72%

Draw or Beroe

60%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

18%

Beroe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

72%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

36%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

13%

Beroe 1+ goals

67%

Beroe 2+ goals

30%

Beroe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

55%

Beroe (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Beroe attack 0.93 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

40%

level

28%

Beroe scores more

32%

Tsarsko Selo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

7'

9'

23'

37'

55'

56'

59'

I. Stefanov← D. Genov

65'

Aboubacar Toungara

73'

A. Coppola← M. Kavdanski

73'

A. Martella← A. Yordanov

73'

V. Hristov← R. Kasa

76'

Jeremy Petris

77'

Sedrick Kalombo

82'

I. Lendrić← V. Pugliese

82'

88'

90+5'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

TsarskoBeroe

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots10

2Corners5

21Fouls21

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target5

4Off Target5

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls21

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2