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Beroe vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Beroe
Beroe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
9/13/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Beroe47%
×Draw29%
Tsarsko Selo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.29
Tsarsko Selo
0.85

Beroe creates 52% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 48 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.22
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Beroe
1.01
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
75%
Beroe or Tsarsko Selo
71%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
53%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
22%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
72%
Beroe 2+ goals
37%
Beroe 3+ goals
14%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
57%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
21%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
66%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beroe scores more
47%
level
29%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
25%

Beroe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Beroe 1–0 Tsarsko Selo

Beroe beat Tsarsko Selo 1-0 in First League on September 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.