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Tsarsko Selo vs Beroe — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beroe
Beroe
8/23/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo40%
×Draw28%
Beroe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.26
Beroe
1.11

Tsarsko Selo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 138 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
68%
Tsarsko Selo or Beroe
72%
Draw or Beroe
60%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
18%
Beroe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
72%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
36%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
13%
Beroe 1+ goals
67%
Beroe 2+ goals
30%
Beroe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
55%
Beroe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Beroe attack 0.93 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
40%
level
28%
Beroe scores more
32%

Tsarsko Selo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tsarsko Selo vs Beroe

Tsarsko Selo beat Beroe 2-1 in First League on August 23, 2019.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.