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Tsarsko Selo vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
8/20/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tsarsko Selo35%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.11
Arda Kardzhali
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 120 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.06
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
1.29
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
64%
Tsarsko Selo or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
65%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
14%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
67%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
30%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
10%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
68%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
32%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
49%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.06 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
35%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
36%

Arda Kardzhali at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tsarsko Selo 1–0 Arda Kardzhali

Tsarsko Selo beat Arda Kardzhali 1-0 in First League on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.