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Arda Kardzhali vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
11/23/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arda Kardzhali49%
×Draw27%
Tsarsko Selo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.40
Tsarsko Selo
0.90

Arda Kardzhali creates 56% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 48 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
76%
Arda Kardzhali or Tsarsko Selo
73%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
51%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
24%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
75%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
41%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
17%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
59%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
23%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
67%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
49%
level
27%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
24%

Arda Kardzhali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Tsarsko Selo

Arda Kardzhali beat Tsarsko Selo 2-0 in First League on November 23, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.