TS Galaxy 1–0 Orlando Pirates: Result & Stats

TS Galaxy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orlando Pirates

5/18/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 23Mbombela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

TS Galaxy32%

×Draw30%

Orlando Pirates38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TS GalaxyExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.09

TS Galaxy

0.99

Orlando Pirates

1.09

Orlando Pirates creates 10% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 119 away

1.15

creates per match

1.26

0.93

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

TS Galaxy

1.15

Orlando Pirates

1.26

allows per match

TS Galaxy

0.93

Orlando Pirates

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TS Galaxy ↓

Orlando Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

TS Galaxy or draw

62%

TS Galaxy or Orlando Pirates

70%

Draw or Orlando Pirates

68%

Winning margin

TS Galaxy wins by 2+

12%

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

TS Galaxy 1+ goals

63%

TS Galaxy 2+ goals

26%

TS Galaxy 3+ goals

8%

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

66%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

30%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)

46%

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TS Galaxy at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 89 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TS Galaxy attack 1.15 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Orlando Pirates attack 1.26 + TS Galaxy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

TS Galaxy scores more

32%

level

30%

Orlando Pirates scores more

38%

Orlando Pirates at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff