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Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy — Premier Soccer League 2018

Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TS Galaxy
TS Galaxy
9/30/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 9Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Orlando Pirates51%
×Draw28%
TS Galaxy20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlando Pirates
1.34
TS Galaxy
0.73

Orlando Pirates creates 84% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 90 away

creates per match

Orlando Pirates
1.56
TS Galaxy
0.76

allows per match

Orlando Pirates
0.70
TS Galaxy
1.13

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par
TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

TS Galaxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw
80%
Orlando Pirates or TS Galaxy
72%
Draw or TS Galaxy
49%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
25%
TS Galaxy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
74%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
39%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
15%
TS Galaxy 1+ goals
52%
TS Galaxy 2+ goals
17%
TS Galaxy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
72%
TS Galaxy (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

TS Galaxy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + TS Galaxy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

TS Galaxy attack 0.76 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more
51%
level
28%
TS Galaxy scores more
20%

Orlando Pirates at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy

Orlando Pirates beat TS Galaxy 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Orlando Stadium in Soweto.