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Tryavna vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
CANC
00:00
Sevlievo
Sevlievo
3/8/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 14Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna21%
×Draw23%
Sevlievo56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
1.02
Sevlievo
1.83

Sevlievo creates 79% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 94 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Sevlievo
1.62

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Sevlievo
0.99

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Sevlievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
44%
Tryavna or Sevlievo
77%
Draw or Sevlievo
79%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
7%
Sevlievo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
64%
Tryavna 2+ goals
27%
Tryavna 3+ goals
8%
Sevlievo 1+ goals
84%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
54%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
27%
Sevlievo (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tryavna scores more
21%
level
23%
Sevlievo scores more
56%

Sevlievo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tryavna host Sevlievo

March 8, 2020: Tryavna take on Sevlievo in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tryavna host Sevlievo at Stadion Angel Kanchev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.