Sevlievo 3–0 Tryavna: Result & Stats

Sevlievo

FT

3 – 0

Tryavna

8/9/2020

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 1Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sevlievo79%

×Draw14%

Tryavna7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevlievoExpected goals in this matchTryavna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

0.68

Sevlievo

2.66

Tryavna

0.68

Sevlievo creates 291% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 39 away

2.42

creates per match

0.62

0.74

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Sevlievo

2.42

Tryavna

0.62

allows per match

Sevlievo

0.74

Tryavna

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par

Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Tryavna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw

93%

Sevlievo or Tryavna

86%

Draw or Tryavna

21%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+

58%

Tryavna wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals

93%

Sevlievo 2+ goals

74%

Sevlievo 3+ goals

49%

Tryavna 1+ goals

49%

Tryavna 2+ goals

15%

Tryavna 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)

92%

Tryavna (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.66

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sevlievo scores more

79%

level

14%

Tryavna scores more

7%

Sevlievo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff