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Tryavna vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
CANC
00:00
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
3/22/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 16Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna30%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
1.33
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.71

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 106 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
54%
Tryavna or Lokomotiv Mezdra
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
70%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
13%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
74%
Tryavna 2+ goals
38%
Tryavna 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
51%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
39%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tryavna scores more
30%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
46%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tryavna host Lokomotiv Mezdra

March 22, 2020: Tryavna take on Lokomotiv Mezdra in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tryavna host Lokomotiv Mezdra at Stadion Angel Kanchev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.