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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
FT
3 – 1
Tryavna
Tryavna
8/25/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 3Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra73%
×Draw16%
Tryavna11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.48
Tryavna
0.84

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 195% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 39 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
89%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Tryavna
84%
Draw or Tryavna
27%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
50%
Tryavna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
44%
Tryavna 1+ goals
57%
Tryavna 2+ goals
21%
Tryavna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
87%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.48

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
73%
level
16%
Tryavna scores more
11%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Tryavna

Lokomotiv Mezdra beat Tryavna 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Mezdra.