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Tryavna vs Levski Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
0 – 3
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
10/25/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 12Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tryavna13%
×Draw20%
Levski Lom67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
0.76
Levski Lom
2.02

Levski Lom creates 166% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Levski Lom
2.00

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Levski Lom
0.47

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–213%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
33%
Tryavna or Levski Lom
80%
Draw or Levski Lom
87%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
4%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
53%
Tryavna 2+ goals
18%
Tryavna 3+ goals
4%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
87%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
60%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
16%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.76

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tryavna scores more
13%
level
20%
Levski Lom scores more
67%

Levski Lom at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tryavna vs Levski Lom

Levski Lom beat Tryavna 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev in Tryavna.