Levski Lom 8–0 Tryavna: Result & Stats

Levski Lom

FT

8 – 0

Tryavna

4/30/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 29Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom88%

×Draw9%

Tryavna3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski LomExpected goals in this matchTryavna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

0.40

Levski Lom

2.98

Tryavna

0.40

Levski Lom creates 645% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

3.06

creates per match

0.62

0.18

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Levski Lom

3.06

Tryavna

0.62

allows per match

Levski Lom

0.18

Tryavna

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Tryavna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw

97%

Levski Lom or Tryavna

91%

Draw or Tryavna

12%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+

70%

Tryavna wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals

95%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

79%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

56%

Tryavna 1+ goals

33%

Tryavna 2+ goals

6%

Tryavna 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

97%

Tryavna (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.98

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Levski Lom scores more

88%

level

9%

Tryavna scores more

3%

Levski Lom at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff