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Tryavna vs Kom Berkovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
3 – 0
Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
5/24/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 29Stadion Angel Kanchev (Tryavna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna36%
×Draw25%
Kom Berkovitsa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
1.44
Kom Berkovitsa
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Kom Berkovitsa
0.98

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Kom Berkovitsa
1.82

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Kom Berkovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
61%
Tryavna or Kom Berkovitsa
75%
Draw or Kom Berkovitsa
64%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
17%
Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
76%
Tryavna 2+ goals
42%
Tryavna 3+ goals
18%
Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
78%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
44%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
48%
Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Kom Berkovitsa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kom Berkovitsa attack 0.98 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tryavna scores more
36%
level
25%
Kom Berkovitsa scores more
39%

Kom Berkovitsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kom Berkovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tryavna vs Kom Berkovitsa

Tryavna beat Kom Berkovitsa 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev (Tryavna).