Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kom Berkovitsa vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
FT
0 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
11/4/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 14Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Kom Berkovitsa74%
×Draw16%
Tryavna10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom Berkovitsa
2.48
Tryavna
0.78

Kom Berkovitsa creates 218% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kom Berkovitsa
2.07
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Kom Berkovitsa
0.95
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom Berkovitsa ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kom Berkovitsa or draw
90%
Kom Berkovitsa or Tryavna
84%
Draw or Tryavna
26%

Winning margin

Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
52%
Tryavna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
92%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
70%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
44%
Tryavna 1+ goals
54%
Tryavna 2+ goals
18%
Tryavna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
88%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom Berkovitsa at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom Berkovitsa attack 2.07 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.48

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kom Berkovitsa scores more
74%
level
16%
Tryavna scores more
10%

Kom Berkovitsa at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kom Berkovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kom Berkovitsa vs Tryavna

Kom Berkovitsa and Tryavna drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa).